Judo Capital’s Q3 Metrics Align With Guidance, FY26 Profit Outlook Revealed

Context of the ASX Aware Letter

Judo Capital Holdings Limited (ASX: JDO) has responded comprehensively to an ASX Aware Letter following its Q3 trading update and subsequent market volatility. The letter addresses concerns about whether various financial data points and outlook statements should have been considered price-sensitive information requiring immediate disclosure under ASX Listing Rules.

Judo’s response carefully distinguishes between the Q3 Financial Update and the FY26 profit outlook. The bank asserts that its Q3 data, covering gross loans and advances (GLA), lending margins, term deposits, net interest margin (NIM), operating expenses, cost of risk, and capital ratios, are consistent with previously issued guidance and analyst consensus, and therefore not material in isolation.

Materiality of FY26 Profit Outlook

Crucially, Judo acknowledges that its FY26 profit before tax (PBT) outlook, disclosed for the first time in the recent announcement, constitutes material information likely to influence the company’s share price. This outlook projects a 50% PBT growth in FY26, assuming stable economic conditions, reflecting anticipated operating leverage benefits as the bank completes major investments in systems and operations.

This new guidance marks a significant forward-looking statement, setting market expectations beyond the current fiscal year and providing investors with a clearer view of Judo’s growth trajectory amid a volatile operating environment.

Market Reaction and Share Price Dynamics

Following the announcement, Judo’s share price experienced a notable decline, with a 9.3% drop prior to a trading halt and a further fall to a 19.4% decrease on the subsequent day. The company’s CEO, Chris Bayliss, attributes this sell-off primarily to the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) loan book data released on 30 April, which showed a modest 1.1% growth in March loans, lower than previous periods, rather than comments made by the CFO during a UBS investor presentation.

Judo confirms that no presentation materials were distributed at the UBS event, and that discussions were consistent with prior public guidance, thereby complying with ASX Listing Rule 15.7. The company maintains that the UBS presentation did not contribute materially to the share price movement.

Compliance and Disclosure Practices

Judo reiterates its compliance with ASX Listing Rules, particularly continuous disclosure obligations under Rules 3.1 and 3.1A. The company explains that the timing of disclosures was appropriate given the materiality assessments, with the FY26 outlook approved by the board on 1 May 2025 and promptly released. The APRA data, being publicly available and consistent with prior guidance, was not considered price-sensitive information requiring separate disclosure.

Overall, Judo’s detailed response aims to reassure investors and regulators that it has acted transparently and in accordance with regulatory expectations, despite the market turbulence surrounding its recent announcements.