McIntosh Project Faces Market and Regulatory Risks Despite Strong PFS Economics

Strong Economic Foundations

Green Critical Minerals Ltd (GCM) has unveiled the results of its Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for the McIntosh Graphite Project in Western Australia, delivering a compelling economic case for development. The study highlights a post-tax net present value (NPV) at an 8% discount rate of A$235 million and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 25.3%, underscoring the project’s financial viability over a projected 32.5-year mine life.

Central to these results is an Ore Reserve of 11.1 million tonnes grading 3.88% Total Graphitic Carbon (TGC), with the project targeting an annual processing throughput of 380,000 tonnes of raw material. This is expected to yield approximately 13,500 tonnes per annum of graphite concentrate and micronised graphite, both at a high purity of 95% TGC. The updated Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) has been upgraded by 8% to 32.6 million tonnes grading 4.25% TGC, reflecting ongoing exploration success and metallurgical test work.

Technical and Operational Insights

The McIntosh project is designed as a conventional open-pit mining operation with contract mining, supported by a detailed mine plan and processing flowsheet. The processing plant will employ a series of crushing, grinding, and flotation stages to produce high-quality graphite products. Notably, the PFS incorporates a modular plant design, facilitating staged construction and potential future expansions.

Operating costs are estimated at A$2,381 per tonne of graphite concentrate, with a total capital expenditure (CAPEX) of A$55.2 million, inclusive of contingency. The project’s operating model anticipates a steady production profile, with mining and processing schedules aligned to maintain consistent output. Environmental management and stakeholder engagement plans are well advanced, with ongoing work to secure necessary approvals and Indigenous Land Use Agreements.

Market Position and Strategic Outlook

GCM’s Managing Director, Clinton Booth, emphasised the strategic importance of the McIntosh project within the global graphite market, particularly given recent geopolitical shifts and the critical role of graphite in battery technologies and other industrial applications. The project aims to supply both traditional graphite markets and emerging downstream applications, including lubricants, friction components, and coatings, with plans to expand into spherical purified graphite for battery anodes.

Market entry is planned via a demonstration-scale facility, producing manageable volumes to validate product quality and customer acceptance without disrupting existing market balances. This cautious approach reflects lessons from past graphite market dynamics and positions McIntosh as a reliable, ESG-compliant supplier aligned with evolving global supply chain demands.

Risks, Opportunities, and Next Steps

The PFS identifies key risks including plant performance, product specification achievement, and market pricing volatility, with mitigation strategies in place. Opportunities for resource expansion, process optimization, and product diversification are also highlighted. The forward work plan prioritises completion of a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS), further metallurgical and geotechnical investigations, and advancing regulatory approvals.

With a clear pathway to production, McIntosh stands as one of Australia’s most advanced graphite projects, poised to contribute significantly to the critical minerals sector and the broader battery materials supply chain.