AGL Reports FY25 Underlying EBITDA of $2.01 Billion, NPAT $640 Million

Context of the ASX Inquiry

AGL Energy Limited recently responded to an ASX Aware Letter following its full-year results announcement for the financial year ended 30 June 2025. The ASX sought clarity on whether AGL’s reported earnings deviated materially from market expectations and whether the company had complied with continuous disclosure obligations under Listing Rule 3.1.

The letter from ASX Compliance referenced AGL’s multiple announcements on 13 August 2025, including its Appendix 4E, Annual Report, dividend declaration, FY25 results, FY26 guidance, and corporate governance statement. The ASX also noted the significant share price decline immediately after the results release, prompting questions about the transparency and timing of AGL’s disclosures.

Underlying Earnings in Line with Market Expectations

AGL confirmed that its key performance metrics; Underlying EBITDA and Underlying Net Profit After Tax (NPAT); were consistent with both its published guidance and the consensus forecasts of approximately 10 sell-side analysts. The company’s FY25 guidance, issued in February 2025, projected Underlying EBITDA between $1.935 billion and $2.135 billion and Underlying NPAT between $580 million and $710 million. The actual results, announced in August, landed near the midpoint of these ranges, with Underlying EBITDA at $2.01 billion and Underlying NPAT at $640 million.

AGL emphasized that it uses a consensus estimate approach to gauge market expectations, averaging analyst forecasts to determine whether earnings surprises have occurred. In this case, no material surprises were identified, and the company stated it was aware with reasonable certainty of its earnings position well before the results announcement.

Statutory Earnings and Market Perception

While underlying earnings met expectations, AGL’s statutory profit after tax (Statutory NPAT) showed a loss of $98 million, heavily influenced by significant one-off and non-cash items totaling $596 million post-tax. These included onerous contract provisions in the Retail segment, transformation costs, and fair value movements on financial instruments.

AGL cautioned that Statutory NPAT is not a reliable indicator of operational performance or valuation drivers due to its volatility and the nature of these adjustments. The company does not provide guidance on statutory earnings and noted that analyst estimates for this measure varied widely, reflecting its unpredictable components.

Share Price Movement and Market Reaction

Following the results release, AGL’s share price dropped from $10.22 to a low of $8.70. The company attributed this movement primarily to investor focus on FY26 guidance and concerns about increased depreciation and operating expenses related to coal and gas assets, which could impact future profitability and dividends.

AGL has been actively engaging with brokers and investors through an investor roadshow to provide clarity on its outlook and address market concerns. The company confirmed that no material variance in earnings expectations was known prior to the results announcement that would have warranted earlier disclosure.

Compliance and Disclosure Assurance

AGL affirmed its full compliance with ASX Listing Rules, particularly continuous disclosure obligations under Rule 3.1. The company’s Market Disclosure Committee authorized and approved the responses to ASX’s queries, reflecting adherence to its internal disclosure policies and governance standards.

This transparent engagement with the ASX underscores AGL’s commitment to maintaining market integrity and investor confidence amid a complex earnings environment.