Select Harvests Cuts Net Debt 50% Amid 2025 Crop Below Forecast
Select Harvests updates on its 2025 almond crop, revealing a slightly smaller harvest than forecast but a strong reduction in net debt and a promising 2026 bloom outlook.
- 2025 crop size estimated at 24,700MT, below midpoint forecast
- Average crop price expected between A$10.14/kg and A$10.20/kg
- Net debt reduced by 50% to $80 million, gearing at 15%
- Positive 2026 bloom despite regional pollination challenges
- Global almond market conditions support optimistic price outlook
2025 Crop Performance and Pricing
Select Harvests Limited has provided an update on its 2025 almond crop, reporting a final estimated size of 24,700 metric tonnes. While this figure falls slightly below the midpoint of earlier forecasts, it remains within the expected range. The company has processed the crop through its Carina West facility, with inshell sales concluded and kernel sales ongoing.
Global almond prices have experienced some volatility this year. Initially softening following the July USDA report forecasting a US crop of 3 billion pounds, prices have since rebounded towards pre-forecast levels. The latest data from the Almond Board of California suggests a smaller marketable crop than anticipated, with carry-in and crop receipts both down compared to 2024. This tightening supply dynamic is viewed positively for pricing over the next 12 months.
Financial Health and Operational Efficiency
Financially, Select Harvests has made significant strides. The company has halved its net debt compared to the previous year, now standing at $80 million, with gearing reduced to 15%. This improvement reflects strong sales and shipping momentum, alongside disciplined cost management. Despite ongoing investments in horticultural strategies, production costs have been held flat, underscoring the company's focus on operational efficiency.
2026 Bloom and Future Outlook
Looking ahead, the 2026 almond bloom has completed with generally positive results. Although the industry faced challenges such as bee shortages and cross-border restrictions in South Australia, Select Harvests secured adequate pollination resources. The bloom started later than usual but was more condensed, with strong performance across most orchards except for some lingering effects in New South Wales. No frost damage has been reported so far, but the risk remains until late October.
In response to the encouraging bloom, the company is increasing fertiliser applications on select orchards to support crop development this year and next. CEO David Surveyor highlighted the inherent variability in agriculture but expressed confidence in the company’s growing resilience and efficiency. He noted that the macroeconomic environment for almonds remains positive, supported by structural changes in the US industry such as reduced new plantings and water availability constraints.
Strategic Implications
Select Harvests’ update signals a company navigating the complexities of agricultural production with a steady hand. While the 2025 crop size was slightly below expectations, the firm’s financial discipline and positive bloom outlook position it well for the future. The evolving global almond market, particularly the tightening US supply, could underpin stronger prices and improved margins in coming years.
Bottom Line?
Select Harvests’ disciplined cost control and positive bloom set the stage for a potentially stronger 2026 season amid tightening global almond supply.
Questions in the middle?
- How will the final 2026 crop size compare given the late and condensed bloom?
- What impact will ongoing US industry structural changes have on global almond prices?
- Can Select Harvests sustain its debt reduction while investing in growth and horticultural improvements?
