How Will PDI and Robex’s Merger Reshape Guinea’s Gold Landscape?

A Strategic Union in West African Gold

In a significant development for the West African mining sector, Predictive Discovery Limited (PDI) and Robex Resources Inc. (Robex) have agreed to merge, forming a new entity poised to become Guinea’s leading gold producer. The all-share transaction, structured as a statutory plan of arrangement, will combine two of the region’s most advanced gold development projects, Bankan and Kiniero, into a single, more competitive operator.

This merger creates a company with a pro forma market capitalization of approximately A$2.35 billion, reflecting the combined strength of both firms. The newly formed entity, dubbed MergeCo, is expected to produce over 400,000 ounces of gold annually by 2029, underpinned by a mineral resource base exceeding 9 million ounces. This scale positions MergeCo as a formidable mid-tier gold producer in Africa, with significant exploration upside in the underexplored Siguiri Basin.

Complementary Assets and Operational Synergies

The Bankan Gold Project, led by PDI, is a large-scale, long-life development with compelling economics, including a 12-year mine life and a life-of-mine average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of approximately US$1,057 per ounce. Meanwhile, Robex’s Kiniero Gold Project is advancing on schedule, with first gold production expected in December 2025 and a 9-year mine life averaging 139,000 ounces annually at a similar cost profile.

By merging, the companies aim to leverage operational synergies, including proximity of assets that could foster a tier-1 mining hub, reduce corporate overheads, and optimize resource utilization. The combined cash flows from Kiniero are expected to significantly de-risk the funding of Bankan’s development, supported further by the exercise of Robex’s in-the-money warrants and options.

Leadership and Market Positioning

MergeCo will benefit from a strengthened leadership team with extensive experience in West African mining projects. The board includes seasoned executives such as Andrew Pardey, former CEO of Centamin, and Matthew Wilcox, who has a proven track record in mine development across the region. This leadership is expected to drive value creation and operational excellence.

From a capital markets perspective, the merger enhances liquidity and investor appeal. MergeCo plans to maintain its primary listing on the ASX while securing a secondary listing on the TSX Venture Exchange. This dual listing strategy aims to broaden institutional reach and increase access to capital. The company also targets inclusion in the ASX 200 index and potentially the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF, which could attract passive institutional investors and support a re-rating of the stock.

Regulatory and Transaction Outlook

The transaction is subject to customary regulatory, court, and shareholder approvals, with Robex shareholders expected to vote in December 2025. The merger is anticipated to close by the end of 2025 or early 2026. Both companies have secured voting support agreements from key shareholders representing approximately 25.5% of Robex shares, underscoring confidence in the deal.

While the merger presents a compelling growth story, it carries typical risks associated with mining ventures, including commodity price volatility, regulatory approvals, and execution challenges. Notably, PDI intends to appeal recent revocations of certain exploration permits, which introduces some uncertainty but also highlights the company’s commitment to expanding its resource base.